This year in leagues all over, we saw a trendy new draft strategy emerge known as “Zero RB.” It was, in my humble opinion, a slight overreaction to what was a down year for the position in 2015. It wasn’t unfounded by any means. It was, after all, a year that saw only seven running backs with over one thousand yards rushing. When you compare that total to 2016 when there were twelve backs with over one thousand yards, you can begin to see why people panicked. 2016 saw 16 ball carriers with more yardage than the tenth ranked RB from 2015. The position was back in a big way. When you consider that seven of the top ten running backs are 25 years old or younger, the strength of NFL backfields should be consistent for years to come. The upcoming draft is going to bring a new crop of young talented running backs into the league. The class is deep, but there are two prospects that are head and shoulders above the rest. Dalvin
from Florida State and
Fournette from LSU are incredible talents who are poised to be spectacular at the next level. We won’t know the true potential for these backs until we know what teams they land on, but we can take a look at game film and see the strengths and weaknesses of each player. Which one of these backs will be the one to own in dynasty? Well, the answer is that you’ll probably be happy with both. But who is going to outperform who?
Dalvin
put an exclamation point on his college career in a big way at this year’s Orange Bowl versus the top-ranked Michigan defense by rushing for 145 yards on 20 carries and a TD. He also added 3 receptions for 62 yards. He has been a consistent rusher for FSU his entire college stay. He is a hair on the small side for an NFL running back as he’s listed at 5’11” and 213 pounds. He has also had surgery on his right shoulder twice and once on his left shoulder in his young career so perhaps durability needs to be a slight concern for potential owners looking to draft
. What I really like about
is the ease with which he changes directions and makes cuts. It looks so fluid and he barely loses any momentum or speed from it. He is incredibly fast, probably one of the faster backs in the draft this year. He is extremely patient behind the line. He is good at waiting for holes to open and using his tremendous burst to fire through those gaps. Kind of reminds me of a poor man’s Le’Veon
in that way. He is also very good at using his blockers and helping his blockers by moving and cutting such a way that they are in a good position to help spring him. He shows really good field awareness that way. He has a solid physical build but tends to run more like a smaller back. He’s more likely to try to make you miss than to truck the defense which may benefit him in the NFL since defenders are so much bigger and stronger. He has good hands and will be a good safety valve type receiver for his quarterback.
In all the tape I studied on
there were a few negatives that I noticed. There were a few times that he was brought down by arm tackles. He needs to make sure he’s always ready to break those if he’s to excel as a professional. He needs work as a pass blocker. As a dynasty owner, this is a problem if I’m counting on him for this year. It’s widely known that if you can’t block for your QB, you just won’t get quality playing time in the NFL. That being said, most college backs don’t come into the league as quality blockers so he isn’t at any bigger of a disadvantage than most anyone else, including Fournette. I also saw him time after time when he knew he had a few steps on a defender slow down and trot his way into the end zone. I never like this quality from a college back taking the next step in his career. It shows that he’s arrogant enough to “know” that he’s better than his competition. Guess what? At the pro level, those guys will catch you from behind and strip that ball before you get into the end zone. He could also be a prime candidate to make one of the boneheaded plays where he drops the ball a half-step before crossing the goal line. Maybe it’ll be nothing, but it’s worth noting when I’m forced to nitpick two exceptional talents.
Fournette is a physical specimen at 6’1” and 235 pounds. He had an injury-plagued junior season which led to a massive decrease in production from his monster sophomore campaign. Even in a season in which he missed four games, he still managed 843 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is a hulk of a back with a tremendous mix of speed, agility, and strength. He punishes opposing defenses by absolutely running over people. I can’t wait to see how his rushing power carries over to the NFL because, in college, he often looked like he was a parent playing in his child’s’ pee-wee league game. He shows strong field awareness. There are a handful of plays where he recognizes the play breaking down and improvises to help his quarterback turn a bad situation into a salvageable situation or even a positive gain. Like
, Fournette isn’t a polished pass blocker, but because of his size and awareness, he has all the tools to pick up the skill and it may even come easily to him.
At LSU, it wasn’t uncommon to see him get to the next level and simply outrun the other team’s corners and safeties, but not always by much. I don’t think his speed will be a problem as a pro, but I’m not sure it’s “elite” either and may prove to not be one of his strengths. He also runs fairly upright which is something that makes it a bit easier for defenders to make a tackle. With his raw power, I don’t think the upright running will be much of a problem, but it should be noted. I don’t get a sense that Fournette is going to contribute much in the passing game. Several of the receptions he had in college were bobbled and he doesn’t seem like he has soft or sure hands. This lack of receiving ability could keep him from being a true three-down, workhorse back. And of course, there is the elephant in the room. This nagging ankle injury. According to Will Carroll who is the injury expert for
SECcountry.com, Fournette has what’s known as a “loose ankle.” It’s correctable with surgery, but there is a risk of reoccurrence. You can bet that NFL doctors will be checking out that ankle thoroughly at the combine, but it’s almost impossible to predict even an injury free player’s long-term NFL health, let alone someone healing from an existing issue.
If forced to compare these guys for dynasty purposes, I’d love to know who they were playing for first. These backs both have NFL type ability, but they are two completely different backs from a style standpoint. Fournette reminds me of
. They are almost the same size and same type of player. They both like to run through people and wear down defenses with their physical running style.
reminds me of
in the way he cuts and negotiates his way through defenses.
is actually a slightly larger build than
, but the same type of athletic ability. To make things even more cloudy, I think that these two backs will be different types of fantasy backs, not unlike
and
. Fournette will be a consistent, 20 carries per game type back. He’ll probably be fairly consistent with his workload and be the goal line back for his team.
, could end up being a featured back, but I suspect that he’ll be more of a boom or bust type of back who averages 3.7 yards on his twelve carries per game, but gets you 80 yards receiving and a touchdown three or four times a year. These drastic differences will mean more to you depending on your team makeup and what you’re expecting out of your high draft pick. When all is said and done, and I can’t stress to you how close I feel these two backs are. Personally, I will take the consistent production that I think Fournette will deliver over
. Fournette’s ankle scares me, but the same can be said for the guy who has already had three shoulder surgeries before entering the NFL. One thing is for sure, the future of the NFL backfield seems to be in good hands.
